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- united states - Why has FiveThirtyEight stopped updating the . . .
I’ve been using FiveThirtyEight presidential election polling averages to keep track of the election predictions However, since Joe Biden dropped out they have stopped updating the polling average
- united states - What are the differences between these groups polled by . . .
Polling by FiveThirtyEight categorizes polls by these groups: A = ADULTS RV = REGISTERED VOTERS V = VOTERS LV = LIKELY VOTERS Is it correct that quot;LV quot; is a proper subset of quot;RV quo
- In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States . . .
In 538's Election Forecast, states are highlighted as either having "the closest races" or being "close to the tipping point" What is the difference between these two categories?
- united states - Why do election predictions by FiveThirtyEight and . . .
538 pays a lot of attention to the quality, decay, and noise from polling data Silver uses Pollster rankings, trend line adjustments, and poll sample adjustments to enhance the performance of a run-of-the-mill polling average
- Why was the Economist model so sure Trump was going to lose compared to . . .
This means that 538 assigns a small probability to some very unlikely outcomes (Trump wins California, or Biden wins Utah) The Economist model doesn't It uses a normal distribution which has thinner tails, and so treats these kind of results as essentially impossible
- Correlation between 538s urbanization index and vote margin 2020?
3 538 did an article about the urban-rural divide It said that in 2016, the correlation between urbanization and Dem voting was 0 69 in 2016 and 0 55 in 2012 (There was one big exception: Vermont ) What was the correlation between the preliminary results and the urbanization index in the 2020 presidential election?
- Is there a correlation between a Presidents approval rating on . . .
I was looking 538's historical approval ratings and I noticed that on the last day of a two-term president's last term, the approval rating was about twice the popular vote margin nationwide This
- united states - Updated database for polling? - Politics Stack Exchange
The best database of political polls I know of is the FiveThirtyEight polling tracker They're adding polls every day, and they make it available both via their website and for download That said, the Morning Consult poll that's currently at the top of the Wikipedia list appears to be the most recent national, presidental poll - 538 doesn't have anything newer in that combination It also was
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